Boss Energy (BOE) – The Honeymoon is over

Boss Energy explores for and produces uranium in Australia and the US. The company holds a 100% interest in the South Australia-located Honeymoon uranium project, which covers an area of approximately 2,595 square kilometres. It also holds 30% interest in the Alta Mesa Project located in the southern state of Texas. Boss Energy was incorporated in 2005 and is based in Subiaco in Perth.

Boss Energy’s share price took a beating – plunging 44% – when the now former market darling released negative guidance for FY26 – the key line was that recent drilling at the eastern end of Honeymoon had found less continuity in the mineralised horizons than assumed in feasibility studies. This suggests that more wells will be needed, meaning higher sustaining capital expenditure, and it also “challenges” Honeymoon’s nameplate capacity. The company plans an expert study, starting shortly, but with no end date confirmed yet.

The key catalyst for the stock now will be the outcome of the study, which should provide an estimate on all-in sustaining costs (AISC), production and mine life from FY27. Driven by the higher sustaining capital expenditure and expected lower production from FY27, and the guesswork required to forecast AISC and output, we downgrade our price target to $2.10 from $4.10, noting there is uncertainty about the value of the stock. We retain our Hold recommendation as we await greater clarity.

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