Qube Holdings (QUB) - Deal wheels keep turning

Qube Holdings provides logistics solutions for import and export supply chains in Australia, New Zealand, and Southeast Asia. The company’s operating division offers services relating to the import and export of primarily containerised cargo; provides various logistics services, which includes road and rail transport, warehousing and distribution, container parks, and related services, as well as operates intermodal logistics hubs. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Sydney.

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Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) has provided notice to extend the due diligence exclusivity period for its takeover of Qube Holdings until 15 February. Ord Minnett has run three adjacent scenarios to MAM’s $5.20 a share indicative offer to ascertain a likely price.

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The mean of the scenarios show that the indicative offer is close to fair value in the short-term, albeit with a lower implied premium for control and/or less value ascribed to the circa $400 million in Qube’s franking credit balance. The scenarios, however, support a view that $5.20 a share understates the longer-term valuation potential within Qube. Given the entrenched market position in many verticals, earnings quality and scarcity of infrastructure assets of this size, our view is that an offer price of $5.42–5.60 per share is full freight in present value terms, with upside from franking credit value.

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We expect Qube to report first-half FY26 net profit growth of 6%, consistent with guidance, and have included the Nexus (NZ) acquisition in our forward-looking assumptions. We expect the positive FY26 outlook statement to be reaffirmed, supported by more stable port and auto volumes, growth in NSW grain logistics and Patrick Stevedoring performance.

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