Transurban Group (TCL) – Hands on the wheel
October 20, 2025
Transurban Group owns and operates more than 20 toll roads in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, the Greater Washington region in the US, and in Montreal, Canada. Transurban Group was founded in 1996 and is based in Docklands in Melbourne.
Transurban Group reported September-quarter average daily traffic (ADT) growth of 3% across its toll-road network, meeting market forecasts, and reiterated guidance for distributions in FY26 of $0.69 per security, circa 6% high on FY25. Within the result, increased usage of its Melbourne and North American roads more than compensated for slower growth in users of its roads in Sydney, which received more than three times its usual rainfall for the period.
Transurban is aiming for growth in underlying operating costs to be kept below the inflation rate and Ord Minnett has incorporated savings of more than $50 million into our model from the management restructure and technology rationalisation to arrive at our FY26 estimate of a 1% increase. Post the quarterly update, we have modestly upgraded our traffic forecasts, but our DPS estimates are unchanged.
We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on Transurban but raise our target price to $14.60 from $14.50 to reflect the increases in our traffic estimates.
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